The riddle of web 2.0
What is the key to the next generation of web applications? Its the question that keeps every CIO, Entrepreneur and VC up at night… Want to know the answer? Its the desktop.
Its interesting that the key to the control of the next big wave in applications takes us right back to the same place web applications promised to unchain us from. The problem is that we’re never truly free of the desktop, nor will we be anytime in the near future. We just wanted centralized access to our data, not to have our applications ripped off our desktop and stuffed haphazardly into some browser. Google, and the rest of the AJAX productivity suites out there racing to free us from the tyranny of Microsoft Office would do well to realize that.
The recent release of the Windows Presentation Format really got me thinking about this. The WPF platform approaches the RIA field with a completely different set of advantages than Adobe. WPF, through .NET, has always supported the concept of sometimes connected. Adobe is just now about to field its second official attempt at entering this territory. It has the back end support of .NET and a massive developer community. Most importantly, Microsoft has complete domination of the desktop market, allowing it to force whatever it likes onto the user base. For example, the .NET framework 3 will be pre-installed on Windows Vista.
Microsoft may have the enterprise developers and a stranglehold on the Windows desktop, but Adobe isn’t coming to the party without any tricks up its sleeve. Adobe’s biggest strength is its design community. If you can find a talented, experienced and professional designer that doesn’t use an Adobe application somewhere in his work flow, then take a picture because you may never see anything like it again. Another advantage is that Adobe can be cross platform where Microsoft cannot. Microsoft is still stuck in the archaic concept of all Windows at every point in development, delivery, maintenance and use or no go. Adobe can openly leverage and contribute to open source on a large scale, which will go a long way towards wooing the developer community into its fold. Another advantage is that Adobe has platforms installed on every machine in the world, PDF and Flash. On most people’s machines Flash is installed as an ActiveX control, which won’t help too much outside of the browser. PDF on the other hand would be a great platform to leverage in Adobe’s march on the desktop.
Other platforms like OpenLaszlo deserve mention here too, though they lack the financial backing and established communities of the big players, they do have the distinct advantage of being absolutely and completely free. No matter how hard they try, Microsoft and Adobe won’t be competing with that. For those that currently use Flex, yes it is free to create RIA’s in Flash, but how free is it to deploy them on a large scale? Open Laszlo is a serious player in this space and it would be foolish to completely ignore them.
So who wins? The answer to that will be based on two key elements. First and foremost, does Windows maintain more than a 90% monopoly on the desktops of end users over the next five years? Secondly, does Apollo truly allow Flash and AJAX developers to deliver fully featured RIA applications to the desktop? If Microsoft loses serious share on the desktop market, Adobe wins by default as cross platform will become vastly more important. If Apollo comes through and is everything we hope it will be, than even if Microsoft maintains a stranglehold, they could still lose. Also, Microsoft has to find a way to focus on the design of its applications, Adobe already has this market on lock down. After all, a shoddy looking application with all the greatest features in the world will not be successful with a non-technical user base. Also, a new found focus on the user (the subject of a future article) will be absolutely necessary for all successful Web 2.0 applications. Which brings us full circle to the title of the article, What is the riddle of Web 2.0? The answer is that it never really had anything to do with the “Web”, at least as most people see it.
